In our November newsletter, we commented on the Halloween Effect. The Halloween Effect is based on the hypothesis that stocks perform better from Oct. 31 (Halloween) to May 1 than they do from the beginning of May through the end of October.
Did this apply over the last 12 months?
The TSX opened on May 2, 2022, at 20,707.70
The TSX closed on October 31, 2022, at 19,426.10
Market movement - Loss of 6.2%
The TSX closed on October 31, 2022, at 19,426.10
The TSX opened on May 1, 2023, at 20,663.70
Market movement - Gain of 6.4%
It seems the Halloween Effect does apply for the last 12 months. This of course does not mean it will repeat for the next 12-month period.
The Halloween Effect does not claim it happens every year but since 1971 it happens more often than it doesn’t.
We will check on this again. Stay tuned.
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