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Your Weekly Commentary – For the week ended July 8

Global equity markets moved higher over the week ended July 8 as investors brushed aside recessionary concerns, focusing instead on relatively strong economic data. The S&P/TSX Composite Index advanced, led by the Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors. In the U.S., the S&P 500 Index posted a positive return, benefiting from the strong performance of the Communication Services sector. Oil and gold prices both declined over the week. Yields on 10-year government bonds in Canada and the U.S. ticked higher.


Unemployment in Canada falls to record low, remains steady in U.S.

  • Canada’s unemployment rate fell to a record low of 4.9% in June, as a result of fewer people looking for work, according to Statistics Canada.

  • The drop occurred despite the loss of 43,000 jobs from the economy in June, primarily from 59,000 fewer self-employed jobs.

  • The services sector lost 76,000 jobs, while the manufacturing sector added 33,000 jobs.

  • The U.S. unemployment rate held steady at 3.6% in June, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The economy added 372,000 jobs during the month.

Canada’s balance of trade improves

  • Canada’s trade surplus widened to $5.3 billion in May from 2.2 billion in April, according to Statistics Canada.

  • The increase was well above the market’s $2.4 billion forecast and represented the largest monthly surplus since August 2008.

  • Exports rose by 4.1% to a record $68.4 billion, driven by high prices for crude oil and bitumen, which accounted for 29.8% of the total.

  • Following three months of increases, imports declined by 0.7% to $6.1 billion in May.


U.S. trade deficit narrows

  • The U.S. trade deficit narrowed by US$1.1 billion to reach a five-month low of US$85.5 billion in May, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

  • Exports rose by 1.2% to a record-high of US$255.9 billion, driven by crude oil, other petroleum products, travel and transport.

  • Imports rose by 0.6% to US$341.4 billion, weighed down by slower demand and higher prices.

Canadian mortgage debt grows

  • The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reported residential mortgage debt in Canada grew by 9% in 2021 compared to 2020.

  • It was the fastest growth rate since 2008, driven by higher values and volume of new purchase mortgages and refinancing.

  • By the second half of 2021, variable-rate mortgages had grown to 53% of the total.



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